http://www.tdwi.org/News/display.aspx?ID=9261
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12/17/2008
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By Mike Schiff
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As 2008 draws to a close, it’s time to look back at some of the major events of the year and speculate on what might occur in 2009. But first, let’s review my predictions from last year.
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Results of Last Year’s Predictions
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In December of 2007 I predicted that the following would occur in 2008:
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Prediction #1: Further industry consolidations. What happened: Although not keeping up with the rapid pace of 2007, 2008 has seen several additional acquisitions this year. See the “Major Data Warehousing Events of 2008” section (below) for details.
Prediction #2: BI would become easier to deploy. What happened: Intuitive user interfaces, search-like query capabilities, integrated platforms, and shared metadata have combined to make business intelligence easier to deploy.
Prediction #3: Open source growth. What happened: The success of open source vendors such as JasperSoft, Pentaho, and Talend demonstrate the correctness of this prediction.
Data mining growth #4: What happened: Although not increasing as strongly as I had expected, data mining and predictive analytics usage continued to grow in 2008, both in governmental and commercial organizations.
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Major Data Warehousing Events of 2008
2008数据仓库领域大事记
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Everyone Had An Appliance Story: With the acceptance of data warehouse appliances as part of an overall data warehousing architecture, major vendors (in addition to start-ups) have jumped on the appliance bandwagon. Column-oriented database vendors such as ParAccel and Vertica have partnered with hardware vendors to support and market data warehouse appliances, and Oracle has partnered with HP to produce the HP Oracle Database Machine. Even Teradata, a company that for many years dismissed data warehouse appliances as niche technology that could only lead to multiple versions of truth, has acknowledged the appliance concept with several platforms of its own and is now bragging that it was the original data warehouse appliance vendor.
每个人都有一个关于数据仓库装置的故事：大厂商通过收购数据仓库装置作为整个数据仓库架构的一部分已经是一个常见现象。面向字段的数据库厂商，比如ParAccel和Vertica已经和硬件厂商成为合作伙伴来支持、开拓数据仓库装置市场。惠普和Oracle合伙生产了HP Oracle数据库机器。即使是Teradata，这个数年前认为数据仓库装置只会误导事实的公司，已经承认了他自己的多平台装置的概念，并且正在鼓吹他自己是最早的数据仓库装置供应商。
（注：数据仓库装置，英文原文是data warehouse appliance,指的是集成了服务器、存储器、操作系统、应用软件等并预先安装好、优化好的数据仓库平台，appliance这个词还没有统一的翻译，暂定为叫做装置）
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Industry Consolidations Continued: Acquisitions in 2008 included data warehouse appliance specialist DatAllegro by Microsoft, Identity Systems by Informatica, specialty analytics vendor NuTech by Netezza, IDeaS Revenue Optimization and natural language processing specialist Teragram by SAS, and open source database vendor MySQL AB by Sun Microsystems. Furthermore, although announced in 2007, IBM’s acquisition of Cognos and SAP’s acquisition of Business Objects were both completed in January 2008.
行业整合继续进行：08年的收购包括微软收购数据仓库装置厂商DatAllegro，Informatica收购Identity Systems，Netezza收购Specialty analytics，SAS收购了IDeaS Revenue Optimization和专注于自然语言处理的Teragram，Sun公司收购了开源数据库Mysql。IBM收购Cognos，SAP收购BO尽管是07年宣布的，但完成也是在08年的一月
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The Recessionary Environment Encouraged Further BI Deployments: As companies sought ways to maintain profitability in the face of a deteriorating economy, they recognized the value of business intelligence for discovering new revenue opportunities, identifying areas of potential cost reductions, and reducing fraud. While IT expenditures were closely watched and, in many cases, reduced, many BI projects actually had their priorities increased.
衰退的经济环境刺激了BI开发：公司们都在寻找经济衰退时的盈利点，他们认识到BI的价值是发现新的营收机会、识别潜在的节约成本的地方并减少欺诈。当很多IT开支被密切关注时，很多情况甚至是减少开支，这种情况下BI项目却有更高的优先级来增加开支
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Open Source Grew: Supporting cost reduction initiatives, open source business intelligence, database, and data integration technology has shown substantial uptake in 2008 to the point where open source offerings, especially products that have formal (albeit extra-cost) support are now making inroads into accounts that previously would not consider them. In many cases, free open source technology was initially used for prototype deployments with organizations upgrading to commercial versions with formal support when the prototypes were placed in production.
开源领域的成长：受减少开支的促进，在2008年开源BI、数据、数据集成技术已经有了实质内容，特别是那些有正式支持（即使是超支的）的产品正在进入以前不被考虑的领域。很多情况下，免费的开源技术最初用于原形开发，这个时候如果将原形投入了生产则有厂商提供正式支持并将他升级为商业本版。
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Predictions for 2009
09年预测
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Looking ahead to 2009, I expect the following to occur:
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Prediction #1: Further Industry Consolidation
行业进一步地整合
Acquisitions will remain a fact of life in the data warehousing industry. Since the economy is now officially in a recession, some vendors will be open to being acquired if only to ensure their survival. Other, more established, vendors may simply succumb to offers they, or their stockholders, simply can’t refuse.
数据仓库行业，收购依然有生命力。尽管目前的经济形势已经被正式定义为衰退，一些厂商依然会对收购敞开大门，如果这是唯一让他们生存下去的办法。其他一些更大的厂商会接受难以拒绝的收购价格而被收购。
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If I had to pick two likely targets, my guess would be Informatica, perhaps by HP in order to augment its data warehousing technology portfolio, and SPSS, perhaps by SAP as Business Objects sells (as an OEM) SPSS predictive analytics technology for its BusinessObjects XI platform. Although neither of these two companies is experiencing major financial problems, their technologies would make attractive additions to the technology portfolio of potential acquirers.
如果我必须选择两个可能的被收购目标的话，我猜想可能是Informatica，可能被惠普收购，为了增强他的数据仓库技术组合。另外一个是SPSS，可能被SAP收购，因为BO将SPSS的预测分析技术作为BO XI platform的一部分。尽管BO和SPSS都没有大的财务问题，但他们的技术组合对收购有额外的吸引力。
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Prediction #2: Cloud Computing will Come Down to Earth
云计算将降落地球
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Continued pressure to reduce expenses will serve as a catalyst for organizations both large and small to utilize cloud computing as an alternative to obtaining and funding in-house resources. Although small companies may use this as their primary computing platform, large companies may use cloud computing for incremental, perhaps one-time, projects. BI vendors not already offering on-demand software will establish a cloud presence to better compete in the small-to-midsize business (SMB) market.
削减开支的持续压力将像催化剂使得大大小小的机构将云计算作为放在机房的服务器的一个替代品。小公司可以将云计算作为他们主要的计算平台，大公司也可以将云计算作为一个补充。不提供按需定制的BI厂商将建立支持云计算的产品来更好地解决中小公司市场。
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Prediction #3: Open Source Growth will Accelerate
开源技术加速成长
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Economic pressure will accelerate the growth of open source technology as well, especially as open source has now established itself in production deployments. Because many vendors are utilizing source technology in their applications in order to reduce costs or, as in the case of several data warehouse appliance vendors, partnering with open source business intelligence and data integration vendors to offer a more complete solution, the growth will be seen in both standalone and embedded environments.
经济压力也将加速开源技术的增长，特别是那些针对生产应用的开源产品。因为很多厂商正在将开源技术用到他们到应用中以降低费用，或者很多数据仓库装置厂商合伙开源BI厂商提供更完善的解决方案。这种增长将在独立和嵌入式平台都出现。
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Prediction #4: The IT World Will Become Greener
IT世界将变得更绿色化
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The peak in energy costs earlier this year provided a strong incentive for organizations to consider becoming “greener” for cost savings as well as more altruistic environmental reasons. Organizations will look to minimize the energy costs associated with their hardware and consider both direct power consumption as well as associated costs such as air conditioning in their technology evaluations. This will further drive virtualization efforts to maximize the utilization of existing hardware.
节能被大力提倡，最大努力使用现有的硬件的方案将越来越多。
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Prediction #5: Major Emphasis on Solutions Rather than Tools and Technology
解决方案将比工具和技术强调的更多
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The need to quickly address business concerns as well as compliance requirements will drive organizations to seek customizable analytic applications rather than to build them from scratch with BI tools. BI vendors will respond to this demand with additional vertical and functional analytic applications, some of which may be obtained through the acquisition of their current partners. Furthermore, vendors such as Oracle and SAP will continue to enhance the analytic functionality of their operational enterprise applications.
快速处理业务的需求使得机构们更多地寻找定制化的分析应用，而不仅仅是给他们一堆BI工具。BI厂商将用垂直分析、功能分析的应用做出相应，这些应用可能是从他们现有的合作伙伴手中收购来的。更进一步，像Oracle和SAP这种厂商将继续强调他们平台的分析功能。
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I’ll report on the accuracy of these predictions next year, when I make new ones for 2010.
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Michael A. Schiff is a principal consultant for MAS Strategies. He can be reached at [email protected]